疫情背景下日本的国际秩序观与对外政策调整

王 珊

[内容提要]新冠肺炎疫情暴发以及全球大流行加速了国际格局调整。日本对未来国际秩序的认知和看法较为多元，主要体现在政府高层、经济界以及智库精英和学者之间。为应对新的国际变局，日本对外政策调整主要以日美关系为核心，在强化日美同盟前提下，试图在未来国际秩序重构中提前布局，最大限度地维护本国利益。日本对华外交政策深受疫情冲击，表现出鲜明的波动性与曲折性，对华牵制因素明显增大。中国应以开放、理性、自信的姿态，主动因应日本的政策调整。

[关键词] 国际变局 新冠肺炎疫情 日美同盟 中日关系

[作者介绍] 王珊，中国现代国际关系研究院东北亚研究所研究员，主要研究日本外交、中日关系。

Japan’s View of International Order and Adjustment of Foreign Policy in the Context of Epidemic Situation

Wang Shan^

Abstract: The outbreak of the COVID-19 and the global pandemic have accelerated the adjustment of the international landscape. Japan’s views on the future international order are quite diversified which is mainly reflected among senior government officials, economic circles, think tank elites and scholars. In order to cope with the new international changes, Japan’s foreign policy adjustment mainly focuses on Japan-US relations. Its foreign policy toward China has been deeply impacted by the epidemic, showing distinct volatility, and the factors that contain China have obviously increased. China should take the initiative to respond to Japan’s policy adjustment with an open, rational and confident attitude.

Key words: International changes, the COVID-19, Japan-US alliance, Sino-Japanese relations

 肆虐全球的新冠疫情，不仅对人类生命健康、全球公共医疗体系造成巨大冲击和损害，也对国际政治格局的调整起到催化和加速作用，对未来国际秩序重构产生深远影响。美国特朗普政府除借新冠疫情对中国直接甩锅和对中国企业打压之外，还在南海、台湾、新疆、香港等问题上全面干涉中国内政，企图干扰破坏中国内外政治环境。作为东亚重要国家、美国的战略盟友，日本对中美战略博弈可能引发的国际格局变动保持着高度关注，对美国对华战略的实质有着清晰的认识和判断，并逐步采取协调性因应举措。虽然日方举措有来自美国压力的被动成分，有自民党高层内部权力斗争所产生的辐射效应，但更有主动应对国际变局的战略考量。日本如何因应把控国际变局，不仅事关日本国家利益，也会对回归正轨的中日关系产生重大影响。

COVID-19 pandemic, which ravages the whole world, not only causes great impact and damage to human life and health, the global public medical system, but also plays a catalytic and accelerating role in the adjustment of the international political structure, having a far-reaching impact on the reconstruction of the international order in the future. In addition to using COVID-19 pandemic to pass the buck to China and suppress Chinese enterprises, the Trump administration of the United States also interfered in China’s internal affairs in an all-round way on issues such as the South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong, in an attempt to interfere with and destroy the political environment at home and abroad. As an important country in East Asia and a strategic ally of the United States, Japan pays close attention to the changes in the international landscape that may be caused by the Sino-US strategic competition, with a clear understanding and judgment of the essence of the US strategy towards China, thus gradually taking corresponding countermeasures. Although Japan’s measures are partly due to US pressure and radiation effects from the internal power struggle at the top of the Liberal Democratic Party, but it is also a strategic consideration to actively cope with the changing international situation. How Japan responds to the international changes not only influences Japan’s national interests, but also has a great impact on the normal Sino-Japanese relations.

 一

 从文化及传统上看，日本人具有较强的危机忧患意识。当下日本疫情虽不如美国严重，但对新冠疫情冲击下国际政治、世界经济、地区格局、全球治理等变化征兆、发展趋势较为敏感。一些政界高层、外交精英、主流学者、媒体记者纷纷就相关议题发表看法和主张。着眼于所谓“后疫情时代”的国际变局，安倍内阁还专门成立了以时任自民党干事长岸田文雄为核心的“构建新国际秩序战略本部”。随着中美战略博弈不断加剧，日本承受来自美国的压力不断增大，这种境况推升了日本各界对未来国际格局走势的关心，从中也呈现出日本对未来国际秩序的忧虑和关切。

From the perspective of culture and tradition, Japanese have a strong sense of crisis. Although the Japanese epidemic situation is not as serious as that of the United States, it is sensitive to the signs of changes and trends in international politics, world economy, regional pattern and global governance under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic. Some political leaders, diplomatic elites, mainstream scholars and journalists have expressed their views and opinions on relevant issues. Focusing on the international changes in the so-called post-pandemic era, Abe’s cabinet has set up New International Order Creation Strategy Headquarters with Fumio Kishida, then secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party as the core. With the intensification of the Sino-US strategic competition, Japan is under increasing pressure from the United States which increases the concern of all walks of life in Japan about the trend of the international landscape and shows Japan’s worries and concerns about the future international order.

 （一）官方主张以“价值观认同”构建新秩序，维护日美同盟体系。日本对新冠疫情影响下国际秩序的认知始于安倍内阁时期，而且自民党高层对主动因应国际变局也存有共识，认为“鉴于抗击疫情斗争的长期化，（作为自民党）必须思考政治责任”。¹自民党所说的“政治责任”是基于内政外交双重考虑，既包括在疫情肆虐所引发的国际变局背景下如何继续巩固执政地位，也包括日本国家对外战略的选择和调整。安倍首相也在国会上发表演说，更为直接地表达了日本政府立场。他表示：“主导国际秩序的国家正被内部问题所困扰，日本需要和共享价值观国家携手建立新的国际秩序。”²安倍说的“主导国际秩序国家”显然是指美国。作为美国盟国的首相，安倍虽没有直接点出美国领导国际秩序的能力衰减，但已表明，在日本看来，美国已因疫情处于自顾不暇的状态，这变相承认了美国在主导国际秩序作用上的缺失。同时，安倍要构建新秩序的“共享价值观国家”不仅不包括中国，还隐含着将中国作为新秩序的异己势力。二战后，自民党政权标榜的“共享价值观”具有特定内涵，它连结了日本与西方阵营话语体系的核心要义，包括“自由、民主、人权和法制”等概念，并以此作为与中国相区隔的“政治标识”、“价值优势”。安倍二次执政后突出了“价值观外交”在日本对外战略中的比重，以之作为界定战略伙伴关系的依据。安倍既说主导世界秩序的国家被内部问题困扰，又说要加强与之合作，构建新秩序，虽指明了合作对象，但也明显流露出被迫和无奈心理。

A. The government advocates building a new order with value identity and maintaining the Japan-US alliance system. Japan’s perception of the international order under the influence of COVID-19 pandemic started from Abe’s cabinet, and the top leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party had a consensus on taking the initiative to respond to the changes of international landscape, holding that in view of the long-term struggle against the epidemic. The Liberal Democratic Party must think about political responsibility.³ The political responsibility mentioned by the Liberal Democratic Party is based on the internal affairs and diplomacy, including how to continue to consolidate its ruling position in the context of the changes of international landscapes caused by the epidemic, and the choice and adjustment of Japan’s national foreign strategy. Prime Minister Abe also delivered a speech in Congress, expressing the stance of government of Japan in a more direct way. He said that the country that dominate the international order are plagued by internal problems and Japan needs to work with countries with shared values to establish a new international order.⁴ The country mentioned by Abe obviously refers to the United States. As the prime minister of the US ally, Abe did not direct point out the decline of US ability to lead the international order, but he has indicated that, in Japan’s view, the United States has been in a state of being overwhelmed by the epidemic, which in fact acknowledges that the United States does not play a leading role in the international order. In the meantime, in the eyes of Abe countries with shared values to build a new order not only excludes China, but also implies that China is a potential enemy to the new order. After World War II, the shared values advocated by the Liberal Democratic Party has a specific connotation, which connects the core essence of the discourse system between Japan and the Western camp, including the concepts of  freedom, democracy, human rights and rule by law, and takes it as a political symbol and value advantage excluding China. After Abe took office for the second time, he puts more emphasis on value diplomacy in Japan’s foreign strategy as the basis for defining strategic partnership. He not only said that the country that dominate the world order is plagued by internal problems, but also said that they should strengthen cooperation with them and build a new order. Although he pointed out the partners, he also obviously showed compulsion and helplessness.   

  针对近期美国内抗疫不力以及因种族问题所引发的骚乱，日本真正担心的是美国过度内耗将导致实力衰减，进而对盟友的安全承诺会力不从心，长此下去，不利于日美同盟保持强盛态势，从而使中国的影响力进一步凸显。2020年5月中旬，外相茂木敏充参加由美国提议，由美、日、澳、巴西、印度等国外长参加的视频会议，提出各国应合力应对疫情，待疫情结束后各国应考虑国际秩序的应有状态。⁵在4月份《美国利益》杂志电子版上，日本政府以“Y·A”之名刊登文章，认为特朗普政权问题虽很多，但对华战略无疑是正确的，值得肯定。文章甚至公开鼓励美国采取对抗手段，称美国与其恪守对华模糊战略，不如推行粗暴的正确战略，对华强硬姿态比其他任何要素都重要。⁶该文一经刊出，立即引起日本内外国际问题学者、政治精英的广泛关注，认为这与安倍政府公开场合的表态形成巨大反差，是日本政府支持特朗普连选连任的明确信号，反映了安倍政府“以美制华”的真实想法。

In view of the recent ineffective anti-epidemic in the United States and the riots caused by ethnic issues, What Japan is really concerned about is that excessive internal friction in the United States will result in the decline of its strength, and the ability to keep its commitment to the security of its allies will decrease. If this continues, it will not be conducive to the Japan-US alliance to maintain a strong momentum, thus further highlighting China’s influence. In mid-May, 2020, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi attended a video conference proposed by the United States and attended by foreign ministers of the United States, Japan, Australia, Brazil, India, proposing that all countries should work together to deal with the pandemic, and in the ear of post-pandemic all countries should consider the proper state of the international order.⁷ In the electronic edition of American Interest in April, government of Japan published an article in the name of Y A, arguing that although Trump administration has many problems, its China strategy is undoubtedly correct and worthy of recognition. The article even openly encourages the United States to adopt countermeasures, saying that instead of abiding by its vague strategy toward China, the United States should pursue a rude and correct strategy, and its tough stance toward China is more important than any other element.⁸ Upon the publication of this article, it immediately attracted wide attention from scholars and political elites on international issues in Japan and other countries. It was considered that this was in great contrast with Abe’s public statement, a clear signal that government of Japan supported Trump in the US general election, and reflected Abe’s real idea of checking China with the United States.

 与安倍本人以及外务省间接隐蔽手法相比，日本防卫省则锋芒毕露，将矛头直指中国。2020年4月，中国海军航母“辽宁号”通过宫古海峡进行远海训练，时任防卫大臣河野太郎先后与美、印、澳、英、法等多个国家举行电话会谈，以所谓中国“在疫情中试图以实力改变现状”为由，主张印太两洋沿岸应“强化有志国家联合，维护自由开放的国际秩序不动摇”。⁹可以说，日高层反华右翼政客极力利用“中国以实力改变现状”作为追求政治大国的资源，试图在与中国有争端的国家中“凝聚共识”，维护以美国为核心的霸权体系。

Compared with Abe and the indirect covert tactics of Foreign Ministry, Japan Ministry of Defense openly points fingers at China. When the Chinese naval aircraft carrier Liaoning conducted offshore training through Miyako Strait in April 2020, Defense Minister Taro Kono held telephone talks with the counterparts of United States, India, Australia, Britain, France and other countries. Accusing China of trying to change the status quo with its strength during the pandemic, he advocated that the countries along Indo-Pacific Ocean coast should strengthen the unity of aspiring countries and maintain the free and open international order unshakable.¹⁰ It can be said that Japan’s high-ranking anti-China right-wing politicians try their best to use this as a resource to pursue a political power, trying to establish consensus among countries that have conflicts with China and maintain the hegemonic system with the United States as the leader.

 总体上看，除防卫省外，日官方对国际变局的认知相对理性、务实，但都把中国崛起视为挑战因素，把中国主动承担国际责任说成是借疫情谋求地缘政治影响力、旨在填补美国留下的权力真空。这反映出日本对现存国际秩序认知上的欠缺与偏颇。实际上，日本政府对未来国际格局演变持有较为复杂的心态，一方面是不愿看到美国主导下的现有国际秩序发生异变，担心这会从根本上动摇日美同盟根基，使日本外交失去赖以存在的“基轴”；另一方面是不希望看到中国在国际事务中分享更大权力、发挥更大作用，更不愿参与由中国主导的国际秩序，认为那样将意味着日本丧失现有权力和地位。

Generally speaking, except that the Ministry of Defense Japanese government’s understanding of the international changes are relatively rational and pragmatic, they all regard China’s rise as a challenge, and describe China’s initiative to assume international responsibilities as seeking geopolitical influence through the epidemic, aiming at filling the power vacuum left by the United States, which reflects Japan’s bias in understanding the existing international order. In fact, government of Japan holds a more complicated mentality towards the change of the future international landscape. On the one hand, it does not want to see changes in the existing international order led by the United States, fearing that this will fundamentally shake the foundation of the Japan-US alliance and make Japanese diplomacy lose the cornerstone on which it depends. On the other hand, it does not want to see China sharing greater power and playing a greater role in international affairs, nor does it want to participate in the international order dominated by China, thinking that this would mean Japan losing its existing power and status.

 （二）智库学者从建构主义视角看待国际变局，认为随着疫情全球大流行，亚太地区不稳定因素增多，中美对抗仍将持续。2020年4月上旬，日本外务省发布2020年度外交安保领域重点研究课题目录，从几家核心智库所认领课题的立论依据，可以看出日本智库精英对国际格局的基本认识和判断。作为外务省直属研究机构的日本国际问题研究所对形势的判断是，当前正处于大国竞争时代，国际秩序处于调整期，全球化、地区秩序呈现流动化。在中国不断崛起背景下，基于规则的自由主义国际秩序正遭遇挑战，支撑既有国际秩序的美欧日处于转折期，并各自呈现不同形态。作为世界经济重心、大国权力政治激化的印太两洋，决定着日本的和平与繁荣以及今后国际秩序的趋势，日本是印太地区构建新秩序的核心国家。¹¹

B. Think tank scholars look at the changes of international landscape from the perspective of constructivism, thinking that Sino-US confrontation will continue with the global pandemic and the increase of unstable factors in the Asia-Pacific region. In the early April 2020, the Japanese Foreign Ministry released the list of key research topics in the field of diplomatic security in 2020. From the argument basis of the topics claimed by several core think tanks, it can be seen that the basic understanding and judgment of Japanese think tank elites on the international pattern. As a research institution affiliated with Foreign Ministry, the Japan Institute of International Studies judges the situation as being in an era of great power in the context of, the international order is in a period of adjustment, globalization, and the regional order is changing. In the context of China’s rising, the rule-based liberal international order is facing challenges, and the United States, Europe and Japan, which support the existing international order, are in transitional period, showing different forms. As an important region of the world economy, Indo-Pacific region in which power politics of major countries intensify determine the peace and prosperity of Japan and the trend of international order in the future. Japan is the core country in the Indo-Pacific region to build a new order.¹²

 同样作为外交界重要智库的日本国际论坛认为，基于自由主义的既有全球化正遭遇来自中国的非自由主义全球化的挑战，世界主要国家通过经济手段追求地缘政治目标的“地缘经济对外战略”呈现多元化。中国积极向海外拓展，动摇了既有的海洋秩序。随着中国经济实力增大，国际秩序正由“美国治下”转入“中国治下”。中曾根康弘世界和平研究所也认为，日本的安全环境正处于不稳定状态，印太开放的海洋秩序正遭遇中国挑战。

The Japan Forum on International Relations, which is also an important think tank in the diplomatic community, believes that the existing globalization based on liberalism is facing the challenge of non-liberal globalization from China, and the geo-economic foreign strategy of major countries in the world pursuing geopolitical goals through economic means is diversified. China’s active overseas expansion has shaken the existing maritime order. With the increase of China’s economic strength, the international order is changing from under the rule of the United States to under the rule of China. NPI Nakasone Peace Institute also believes that Japan’s security environment is in an unstable state, and the open ocean order of India and Pacific is being challenged by China.

 日本核心智库均侧重于从两种不同意识形态主导下的国际秩序对决的视角看待国际变局，把“应对中国”作为构建国际秩序的核心议题和战略支点，并突出日本在构建新秩序中的作用。日智库机构的观点虽只是外务省课题的立项依据，但其认识无疑与日本官方观点相互印证，基本上反映出政府的立场和主张。

Japan’s core think tanks all focus on the international changes from the perspective of the confrontation of the international order led by two different ideologies, taking dealing with China as the core issue and strategic fulcrum of building the international order, and highlighting Japan’s role in building a new order. Although the views of Japanese think tanks are only the basis for the project approval of Foreign Ministry, their understanding undoubtedly corroborates with the official stance of the government of Japan, which reflects the government’s position and proposition.

 （三）经济界从疫情对人类生产、生活方式影响的视角看待国际变局，主张对华合作。日本经济界对新冠疫情背景下国际变局的认识，并没有一味地迎合政府及媒体观点，而是基于现实经济利益，战略视野更为开阔和务实。

Third. The economic circles analyze the changes of international landscape from the perspective of the impact of the epidemic on human production and lifestyle, and advocate cooperation with China. Japanese economic circles’ understanding of  the changes of international landscape in the context of COVID-19 pandemic does not blindly cater to the views of the government and the media, instead it is based on realistic economic interests, with a broader and pragmatic strategic vision.

  日本经济界对新冠疫情冲击下的国际局势的看法主要集中于两点：一是对疫情本身影响的认识。日本经济同友会常务干事樱田谦悟认为，新冠疫情的影响从个人生活、价值观、劳动方式、商业形态、人与社会关系，扩展到国际秩序构建，广泛而深刻。他主张，日本经济界应强化对人类与新冠共存、疫后环境应对等问题的共同意识。¹³日本“大和综研”首席经济学家熊谷亮丸认为，新冠疫情将导致一系列结构性变化，中美对立加剧，并引发资本主义与共产主义霸权之争，世界将分成两大阵营，由此将增大经济和地缘政治风险。¹⁴此外，日本一些综合类权威期刊社论也指出，受新冠疫情冲击，国际经济、金融呈现自1944年“布雷顿森林会议”以来最显著的变化，未来国际经济、金融霸主易位，美元霸权时代或将终结。

Their views on the international situation under the impact of COVID-19 pandemic mainly focus on two points: First, their understanding of the impact of the pandemic itself. Executive director of Japan Association of Corporate Executive, believes that the influence of COVID-19 pandemic extends from personal life, values, labor methods, business forms, and the relationship between people and society to the construction of international order, which is extensive and profound. He advocates that Japanese economic circles should strengthen their common awareness of the coexistence of human beings and COVID-19 and post-pandemic environmental response.¹⁵ Mitsumaru Kumagai, chief economist of Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd., believes that COVID-19 pandemic will lead to a series of structural changes: intensifying the Sino-US confrontation, leading to hegemony dispute between capitalism and communism. The world will be divided into two camps, which will increase economic and geopolitical risks.¹⁶ In addition, editorials of some authoritative Japanese comprehensive journals also point out that due to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, the international economy and finance have undergone the most significant changes since the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944. In the future, the international economic and financial hegemony will change and the era of US dollar hegemony will end.

 二是对疫情背景下中美战略博弈的认识。针对美国借疫情对中国搞污名化，日本经济团体联合会会长中西宏明指出“中国不是敌人”，认为基于全球经济复苏考虑，不应排斥中国在多边国际机制中的地位和作用。日本贸易会会长小林健则认为，“虽然日本在安全领域依赖美国，但与中国的经济联系更为紧密”。¹⁷ 近日，中日企业家举行网络视频会议，围绕在疫情背景下双边经贸合作等问题，达成多项共识，双方均致力于为地区及世界经济复苏发挥牵引作用。

Second. The understanding of the Sino-US strategic competition in the context of pandemic. In response to the stigmatization of China by the United States through the epidemic, Hiroaki Nakanishi, president of Nippon keizai dantai rengōkai, points out that China is not an enemy and believes that China’s position and role in multilateral international mechanisms should not be excluded in terms of the global economic recovery. Ken Kobayashi., president of Japan Foreign Trade Council,Inc. believes that although Japan relies on the United States in security, its economic ties with China are closer.¹⁸ Recently, Chinese and Japanese entrepreneurs held an online conference, and reached a number of consensuses on bilateral economic and trade cooperation in the context of the pandemic. Both sides are committed to playing a leading role in regional and world economic recovery.

 总体上，日本各界对国际格局演变认识较为多元，普遍观点是在新冠疫情加速冲击背景下，国际变局将围绕中美战略博弈展开，“中国因素”对既有国际秩序构成挑战，“美国衰退”已是普遍共识，¹⁹日本应主动应对国际变局，发挥大国影响力。

Overall, Japanese people with different occupations have multiple understandings of the change of the international landscape. The general view is that in the context of COVID-19 pandemic’s wide-spreading impact, those changes will start from the Sino-US strategic competition. The Chinese factor poses a challenge to the existing international order, and the American recession has become a consensus.²⁰Japan should take the initiative to cope with the changes of international landscape and exert its influence as a big power.

 二

 日本围绕新冠疫情背景下国际秩序的政策调整，主要以日美关系为核心，在强化日美同盟的前提下，趋利避害，最大限度地维护本国利益。在如何应对中美博弈、国际变局背景下实现国家战略优化与重构等问题上，最早发端于日本学界的讨论，这种动向在特朗普上台后不久就已经开始。只不过，那时日本关注的重点是特朗普作为一个非传统型政治家的特点、商人气质、民粹主义的施政手法等。随着中美贸易争端升级、全球疫情大流行，日本思考问题的着眼点又增添了新的元素，尤其是中国抗击疫情的成功举措、国家巨大凝聚力和动员能力，这不仅使日本重新认识中国制度体制的优势，也加深了日本对未来以美国为核心的西方自由民主制度体系衰退的担忧。日本庆应大学教授细谷雄一将新冠疫情冲击和两次世界大战、冷战、“9·11”等重大历史事件相类比，认为新冠肺炎疫情在人类历史上具有划时代意义，批评特朗普政府在疫情防控中无所作为，并不断挑起国际争端，加剧了世界摩擦与动荡。他对特朗普的价值观持否定看法，认为美国已经失去国际公信力和道德引领力，在“后疫情时代”难以继续领导世界，自由主义世界秩序正加速衰退。²¹日本亚洲经济研究所原所长白石隆则从另外一个视角提出看法。他认为，围绕疫后国际秩序的中美战略竞争将极大地改变世界与亚洲国际关系，竞争对立从贸易、地缘政治到科技、数据流通、通讯等众多领域展开。中美对立激化，使美国主导的同盟体系得以强化。²²

Japan’s policy adjustment in response to the international order in the context of  COVID-19 pandemic mainly focuses on Japan-US relations. On the premise of strengthening Japan-US alliance, Japan seeks advantages and avoids disadvantages, maximizing its own interests. How to deal with the Sino-US competition and achieve the optimization and reconstruction of national strategy in the context of the changes of international landscape is first discussed by the Japanese academia and this trend start shortly after Trump took office. However, at that time, Japan focused on Trump’s characteristics as a non-traditional politician, businessman, populist governance and so on. With the escalation of Sino-US trade disputes and the pandemic, Japan began to consider new issue, especially China’s successful measures to fight with pandemic, the country’s great cohesion and mobilization ability, which not only makes Japan re-recognize the advantages of China’s institutional system, but also deepens Japan’s concerns about the decline of the Western liberal democratic system with the United States as the leader in the future. Comparing the impact of COVID-19 pandemic with the two world wars, the Cold War, the September 11 attacks, and other major historical events, Hosoya Yuichi, a professor at Keio University in Japan, thinks that the COVID-19 pandemic was of epoch-making significance in human history. He criticizes the Trump administration for doing nothing in the prevention and control of the pandemic, and constantly provoking international disputes, which aggravated the friction and turmoil in the world. Holding a negative view of Trump’s values, he argues that the United States has lost its international credibility and moral leadership, it is difficult to continue to lead the world in the post-pandemic era, and the liberal world order is accelerating its decline.²³ Former director of Asian Economic Research Institute put forward his views from another perspective. He believes that Sino-US strategic competition on the post-pandemic international order will greatly change the international relations between the world and Asia. The competition and confrontation will range from trade and geopolitics to science and technology, data circulation, communication and many other fields. The intensification of Sino-US confrontation has strengthened the alliance system led by the United States.²⁴

 日本国内除了对维系日美关系的价值认同出现变化外，在整个疫情防控过程中，日美官方之间一直保持磋商与协调。日本以本国利益为导向，从疫情防控、地区安全、对华牵制等方面强化对美协调，在政策手段上聚焦于南海、香港等问题对中国发难。但鉴于疫情爆发初期，中日民间相互支持援助，两国民意较为融洽，由此带来的正面效应并没有使日本政府从一开始就站到美国一边。可见，日本倒向美国一边经历一个渐变的过程。导致这种转变的因素有二：一是由于美国国内疫情大流行，特朗普政府为转嫁责任，对华采取甩锅政策，特朗普的举动迎合了日本国内亲美反华势力的政治需求。二是中国抗疫取得显著成效，率先复工复产，经济呈现增长态势，在国际反华舆论的诱导下，加之日本国内疫情恶化，日本民众对华舆论逐渐趋于负面，所谓中国应该为新冠疫情“担责论”不断掩盖前期民间的正面互动。不仅如此，日本国内舆论变化也促使政府对外政策天平逐渐倾向于美国。

Except for the changes in the value recognition of maintaining Japan-US relations in Japan, Japanese and US officials have always maintained consultation and coordination during epidemic prevention and control. Guided by its own interests, Japan has strengthened coordination with the United States from the aspects of epidemic prevention and control, regional security and containment of China, provoking China with the issues of the South China Sea and Hongkong. However, in view of the mutual support and assistance between Chinese and Japanese people in the early stage of the outbreak, the public opinion of the two countries was relatively harmonious, and the positive effect brought by this did not make government of Japan side with the United States from the beginning. It can be seen that this is a gradual process when Japan sides with the United States. There are two factors leading to this change: First. Due to the epidemic in the United States, the Trump administration shifts the blame to China, and Trump’s actions catered to the political needs of pro-American anti-China forces in Japan. Second. China has done very well in fighting the pandemic, taking the lead in resuming production, and its economy indicates a growth. Under the guidance of international anti-China public opinion and the deterioration of the epidemic situation in Japan, Japanese public opinion on China turns to be negative. The idea that China should take responsibility for the COVID-19 constantly undermines the positive interaction between the two peoples in the early stage for COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, the change of public opinion in Japan also makes the government’s foreign policy gradually favor the United States.

 日本应对未来国际变局的政策调整始终没有脱离中美日三边关系的基本框架，将中国实力提升以及中美日三方力量变化态势，作为判定国际格局变动的征兆和依据。而这在很大程度上反映了日本看待国际变局战略视野的狭隘性和局限性，同时也体现出日本对美政策的从属性和被动性。

Japan’s policy adjustment in response to the future international changes has never broken away from the basic framework of the trilateral relations among China, the United States and Japan. It regards the enhancement of China’s strength and the fluctuation of the forces of China, the United States and Japan as the symptom and basis of judging the change of the international landscape. Largely, this not only reflects the narrowmindedness and limitation of Japan’s strategic vision of international changes, but also the subordination and passivity of Japan’s policy towards the United States.

 首先，针对疫情防控，主动调节与美国的双边矛盾和分歧。根据20世纪50年代初签署的“日美地位协定”第九条第二款的规定，美军军官、士兵及其家属进入日本应当免除包括卫生防疫在内的一切手续，日本政府应允许驻日美军及其家属进入日本。按照该协定，美军及相关人员进入驻日基地后，不需要进行核酸检测。同时，美国还以军事安全保密为理由，要求日本政府不要公开驻冲绳美军及相关人员的新冠疫情信息。随着美军感染人数的不断增加，日方开始要求美军及相关人员进入日本后要进行核酸检测，起初美方并不同意这一做法，但在日方的不断要求下，美军最终同意进行核酸检测，并向日本通报感染者人数。此外，围绕世界卫生组织（WHO）改革问题，日本曾极力规劝美国不要脱离世卫组织。2020年5月，美国罗列WHO没有履行基本义务、不透明、偏向中国等罪名，要求其改革，并威胁退出WHO。日方私下多次与美方沟通，并同G7成员国一道，一方面表示支持对WHO进行改革，另一方面积极做美国工作，以确保发达国家在世界卫生保健领域的主导地位，避免WHO被中国操控，在政策立场上明显倾向于美国。

A. Aiming at epidemic prevention and control, Japan actively adjusts bilateral contradictions and differences with the United States. According to the section 2 of Article 9 of An Administrative Agreement with the United States signed in the early 1950s, U.S. military officers, soldiers and their families should be exempted from all procedures including health and epidemic prevention when entering Japan and government of Japan should allow U.S. troops stationed in Japan and their families to enter Japan. According to the agreement, when the US military and related personnel enter the bases in Japan, there is no need for nucleic acid test. In the meantime, the United States also asked government of Japan not to disclose COVID-19 pandemic information of US troops and related personnel stationed in Okinawa on the grounds of military security and confidentiality. With the increasing number of infected people in the US military, the Japanese side began to require the US military and related personnel to have nucleic acid test upon entering Japan. At first, the US did not agree, but at the constant request of the Japanese side, the US military finally agreed to carry out nucleic test and informed Japan of the number of infected people. In addition, on the issue of the reform of the World Health Organization (WHO), Japan has strongly advised the United States not to withdraw from WHO. In May 2020, the United States blamed WHO for failing to fulfill its basic obligations, transparency and bias towards China, demanded its reform, and threatened to quit. Japan has communicated with the United States many times privately. On the one hand together with G7 members Japan expresses its support for the reform of WHO, on the other hand, it actively works with the United States to ensure the dominant role of developed countries in the field of world health care and avoids WHO being manipulated by China, which obviously favors the United States.

 其次，在同盟政策上，日本希望继续强化日美同盟关系，深化与美全方位合作，在新冠病毒溯源、南海、香港等问题上给中国施加压力。对于有关新冠病毒的溯源问题，特朗普政府一味地甩锅中国，一些国家也跟着随风附和。起初，日本并没有跟随美国的对华战略节奏，而是保持一定的自主性，但随着美国对日施压以及日本右翼势力不断在钓鱼岛问题上滋生事端，中日关系矛盾与争端凸显，日本改变此前在疫情问题上的沉默立场，开始迎合西方论调，安倍甚至还宣称“新冠疫情由中国扩展到世界”。²⁵2020年5月下旬，当中国全国人大通过有关香港国安立法决议后，一些日本政要配合美国对华战略，开始对香港民主、人权“感到忧虑”，当法案正式颁布后，日本政府又表示“遗憾”，无视中国维护国家安全的正当行为，对中国内政妄加评论。此外，日本还在疫情期间加强与美澳印战略协同，强化四方印太安全合作，意欲打造亚洲版“小北约”，在军事安全上给中国施加压力。美日等一些国家频繁在南海地区举行军演，打着“维护印太海上航行自由旗号”，制造南海紧张局势。美日的联合军事行动是其对华战略的一个侧面反映，即通过制造中美对抗冲突，转移国内注意力，缓解因疫情所导致的社会矛盾。

B. In terms of alliance policy, Japan hopes to continue to strengthen Japan-US alliance, deepen all-round cooperation with the United States, and exert pressure on China on issues such as origin tracing of COVID19, South China Sea and Hong Kong. As for the origin tracing of COVID 19, Trump administration shift the blame to China, and some countries followed suit. At first, Japan does not follow the strategic rhythm of the United States, instead, it maintains a certain degree of autonomy. However, with the pressure exerted by the United States on Japan and the Japanese right-wing forces constantly find trouble in the issue of Diaoyu Islands, the contradictions and disputes in Sino-Japanese relations have become prominent. Japan has changed its previous silent stance on the epidemic issue and began to cater to Western arguments. Abe even declared that COVID-19 pandemic has spread from China to the world.²⁶ In late May 2020, when the National People’s Congress of China approved the Hong Kong’s national security law, some Japanese politicians began to worry about Hong Kong’s democracy and human rights in cooperation with the US strategy toward China. When the bill was officially promulgated, government of Japan expressed regret, ignoring China’s legitimate behavior of safeguarding national security and making reckless comments on China’s internal affairs. In addition, during the pandemic, Japan strengthened strategic coordination with the United States, Australia and India, consolidating security cooperation between India and Pacific, with the purpose of establishing a little Asian NATO to exert pressure on China in military security. The United States and Japan, and some other countries frequently hold military exercises in the South China Sea, creating tensions in the South China Sea in the name of safeguarding freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific Sea. The joint US-Japanese military exercises is a reflection of its China strategy, which is, by creating conflicts between China and the United States, diverting domestic attention and reducing social tensions caused by the epidemic.

 再次，在手段选择上，游离于中美之间，仔细核算本国战略利益。日本处于中美两大国夹缝之间，一方面紧盯中美权力博弈的趋势和走向，同时还要考虑在中美之间保持适度距离，增加政策回旋空间，即“希望左右逢源，两头得利”。²⁷日本在中美战略博弈中所表现出的务实举动，很大程度是基于现实利益方面的考量，通过谨慎计算本国利弊得失，采取机会主义与实用主义并举策略。日本国际协力机构理事长、原日本驻联合国副大使北冈伸一在谈到当前日本外交环境时，强调日本应尽量回避与中国的冲突，否则要付出巨大成本，中国不会轻易接受日本从反华到亲华的政策转变，而美国则能够灵活地调整对华政策。基于地缘政治上的考量，日本不能采取和美国同样的做法，只能在中美之间寻求平衡。²⁸从政治传统上看，基于现实主义的思维与主张在战后已经成为日本政府的基本政策取向，尤其是在国际局势尚不明朗的形势下，日本往往并不是简单拘泥于某一信念或原则，而是依据形势发展、利益需求和实际可能制定政策、确定方向。

C. It seeks a balance between China and the United States, carefully calculating its own strategic interests. Japan is caught between China and the United States. On the one hand, it keeps a close eye on the Sino-US competition, and at the same time, it considers keeping a moderate distance between China and the United States and increasing the space for policy maneuver, that is, hoping to benefit from both sides.²⁹ Japan’s pragmatic actions in the Sino-US strategic competition are largely based on the consideration of it own practical interests. By carefully calculating its own advantages and disadvantages, Japan’s strategy is the combination of opportunism with pragmatism. When talking about the current Japanese diplomatic situations, KITAOKA Shin’ichi, former Japanese deputy ambassador to the United Nations and chairperson of JICA, stressed that Japan should avoid confrontation with China as much as possible; otherwise, it will pay huge costs. China will not easily accept Japan’s policy change from anti-China to pro-China, while the United States can flexibly adjust its policy to China. Based on geopolitical considerations, Japan cannot adopt the same approach as the United States, but can only seek a balance between China and the United States.³⁰ From the political tradition, realistic thinking and proposition have become the basic policy of government of Japan after the Second World War especially in the uncertain international situation, Japan does not often simply persist in a specific belief or principle, but makes up policies and determines the direction based on the trends, interest, and actual situation.

 从冷战结束时期的海湾战争到“9·11事件”，再到伊拉克战争，每逢出现重大国际事态、事关日本国家战略选择时，日本在战略上总会选择追随美国，尽管有时会做出一些姿态性的宣示，甚至与美国保持一定距离，但不会偏离大方向。作为美国的战略盟友，虽然特朗普在驻日美军基地费用分担、双边贸易等问题上的高压政策一度使日本对日美同盟的共同意志产生疑虑，双方甚至出现政策错位，但在涉及国际变局等重大问题上，日本还是坚定地站在美国一边。自2020年9月菅义伟内阁成立以来，在对美关系上大体上延续了日本外交传统，即将日美同盟作为外交政策“基轴”，并在此基础上扩大和培植安全伙伴以及准同盟关系，以“民主”“人权”“法治”为标识，强化日美核心价值体系。2021年1月菅义伟在日本通常国会施政演说中，表示将进一步推进日美军事一体化，保持抑制力，在疫后国际秩序构建中发挥指导力。³¹

From the Gulf War at the end of the Cold War to the 9.11 Incident and then to the Iraq War, whenever there is a major international event that concerns Japan’s national strategic choice, Japan always chooses to follow the United States strategically. Although it sometimes makes some posturing announcements and even keeps a certain distance from the United States, it will not deviate from the general direction. As a strategic ally of the United States, although Trump’s high-pressure policy on the cost sharing of the US military base in Japan and bilateral trade once made Japan doubt the shared purpose of the Japan-US alliance, and even the two sides had different policies, Japan still stands firmly with the United States on major issues such as international changes. Since the establishment of Suga Yoshihide’s cabinet in September 2020, Japan’s diplomatic tradition has been generally continued in its relations with the United States, that is, Japan-US alliance is the  cornerstone of its foreign policy, and on this basis, security partners and quasi-alliance relations have been expanded and cultivated, and the Japan-US core value system of has been strengthened with the symbols of democracy, human rights and rule of law. In January 2021, Suga Yoshihide stated in his policy address to Japan’s Diet that he would further promote Japan-US military integration, and play a guiding role in the construction of international order in the post-pandemic era.³²

 三

 疫情期间日本对外战略调整的主要目标是针对中国，在不损害日美同盟核心利益的前提下，将对华合作与牵制作为战略基调。2020年1月下旬，武汉新冠疫情暴发后，中国进行了伟大的抗疫斗争，引发国际社会的高度关注，尤其是作为近邻的日本，反应较为迅速。2020年1月下旬，日驻华大使馆成立了“新冠肺炎疫情应对本部”，负责调查在鄂日侨状况；日本外务省还针对拟赴鄂游客发布了“三级传染病危险警示”，并派出包机赴武汉接回滞留的日本人。尽管举国上下已经开始了大规模的援鄂抗疫行动，但中方对日方多架次政府包机还是提供了特殊的便利，而随同政府包机的日方也向中方提供了抗疫物资。中日除了官方积极合作之外，执政的日本自民党也对中国人民的抗疫斗争给予积极援助，自民党国会议员有组织地为武汉抗疫捐助款物。随后，日本社会各界以及民间友好人士也积极为武汉抗疫提供多方面的支持和援助。这种现象在中日关系史上并不多见。

During the pandemic, the main goal of Japan’s foreign strategic adjustment was to target China, it is the basic policy to cooperate with China and curb China without undermining the core interests of Japan-US alliance. In the late January 2020, after the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China carried out a great fight against anti-epidemic, which aroused great concern from the international community, especially Japan. As a close neighbor of China, it responded quickly. In the late January 2020, the Japanese Embassy in China established the COVID-19 Epidemic Response Headquarters to implement a survey on the Japanese nationals in Japan .The Japanese Foreign Ministry also issued a Class III Infectious Disease Warning for tourists planning to travel to Hubei, and sent charter flights to Wuhan to bring back the its nationals in Wuhan. Although the whole country has started a large-scale anti-epidemic campaign to aid Hubei, China has open green channel for many  Japanese government chartered flights, which also provided anti-epidemic supplies to China. In addition to the official cooperation between China and Japan, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan also offers assistance to the Chinese people’ in  the fight against epidemic, and members of the Liberal Democratic Party in Diet of Japan also donated money and materials for Wuhan’s anti-epidemic campaign. Subsequently, Japanese people of different occupations also actively provided various support and assistance for Wuhan to fight the epidemic, which is rare in the history of Sino-Japanese relations.

 回顾一年时间里中日围绕新冠疫情大流行的整个互动历程，可以明显感觉到日本对华外交政策深受疫情冲击，表现出鲜明的波动性与曲折性。武汉疫情暴发之初，中国对日本撤侨行动给予大力支持，日本对武汉抗疫也予以积极声援。但随着疫情在全球大流行，以美国为首的西方国家开始向中国发难，肆意将新冠疫情政治化，日本对华政策出现动摇，对华言论日益转向消极。近期，随着日本国内疫情进一步加重，日本举办东京奥运会的不确定性增大，加之国内经济大幅衰退，日本对华舆论更趋负面。这种变化反映了日本政府立场从最初对待疫情的务实态度，到后来面对国内外双重压力，已开始在战略上倾向美国，对华政策呈现新的发展趋向。

The Sino-Japan interaction over the COVID-19 pandemic clearly demonstrates Japan’s foreign policy toward China has been deeply impacted by the pandemic with distinct volatility. At the beginning of the outbreak in Wuhan, China helped Japan evacuate Japanese nationals and Japan supported Wuhan’s fight against the epidemic. However, as the pandemic spread to the globe, western countries, led by the United States, began to attack China, politicizing COVID-19 pandemic wantonly. Japan changed its policy, and its remarks toward China turned increasingly negative. Recently, with the further aggravation of the epidemic in Japan, the uncertainty of hosting the Tokyo Olympic Games in Japan has increased, and the domestic economy has declined sharply, which makes Japan’s public opinion towards China turn negative. This change reflects that the attitude of government of Japan towards the epidemic is quite pragmatic at first, later it starts to side with the United States, so its policy to China has shown a new trend.

 首先，希望延续两国关系的改善势头。随着安倍政权进入执政后期，安倍有意维持推动中日关系向好势头，试图突破其东亚外交困境。然而，突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情，打乱了安倍的执政节奏，尤其是2020年8月安倍突然决定辞去首相职务，使日本政坛顿生变数，而继任的菅义伟内阁将施政重点放在“寻求脱困”上³³，对华外交既非其长项，同时也力有不逮。菅义伟就任日本首相后，中日领导人在第一时间通了电话，菅义伟表示重视中日关系，希望同中方保持密切沟通，致力于加强两国经贸合作，深化人文交流，推动中日关系迈上新台阶。此外，菅义伟也主张在应对国际社会共同问题上，中日可以联合。³⁴虽然这种合作是在多边框架之下，但表明中日不仅在双边层面有共同利益，在多边框架内也可以进行有效合作。日本政府希望保持两国关系的改善势头，并在已有基础上向上提升。

A. Wishing to continue the momentum of improving bilateral relations. In the latter stage of Abe administration, he intends to maintain the momentum of promoting Sino-Japanese relations and try to break through his diplomatic dilemma in East Asia. However, the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 has disrupted Abe’s administrating rhythm. In particular, in August 2020, Abe decides to resign without any symptoms, which brings unexpected change to the Japanese politics, and the successor Yoshihide Suga cabinet’ s focus is to get out of the trouble.³⁵ It is not good at dealing with Chinese and incapable of what it wants to do. After Yoshihide Suga took office as Japanese Prime Minister, the leaders of China and Japan talked on the phone. Yoshihide Suga expressed that he valued Sino-Japanese relations, wishing to maintain close communication with China, and committed to strengthening economic and trade cooperation between the two countries, deepening cultural and educational exchanges and bringing Sino-Japanese relations to a new level. In addition, Yoshihide Suga also advocates that China and Japan can unite in dealing with the common problems of the international community.³⁶ Although this kind of cooperation is under the multilateral framework, it shows that China and Japan not only share common interests at the bilateral level, but also can carry out effective cooperation within the multilateral framework. Government of Japan hopes to maintain the momentum of improving relations between the two countries on the existing basis.

 其次，责难和诋毁中国声音增大。纵观疫情期间中日关系的基本发展态势，可以发现，日本在中国抗疫之初且本国疫情尚未大流行之际，表现出对华积极友好姿态，并对中国施以援手，这既有中日两国领导人对双边关系政治引领的惯性，也有日本政府内政上的考虑。当中国抗疫取得阶段性成果并率先复工复产之后，尽管中方展示出对日合作的友好姿态，但日本却追随美西方，加大与美国的战略协调，在一些涉及中国内政问题上进行政治炒作，责难和诋毁中国声音明显增大。日本把未来国际秩序调整看成是中美战略博弈引发的直接后果，主动调整与中美两国之间的关系，并以此作为因应国际变局的重要切入点，主动利用手中的政策工具，在涉华热点问题上与域外国家结成对华阵线。究其原因：一是自民党的执政理念迎合了当今日本社会的主流思潮，代表着绝大多数民意，其政策主张与日本国内民族主义、右翼保守势力的政治诉求存在巨大的契合点；二是日本的做法符合美国对日战略的基本构想。安倍内阁时所追求的“脱战后体制”，以及在安全政策上的一系列重大举动，不仅迎合了美国东亚战略利益调整，也满足了美国以日制华的需求，有助于美国将“道义的日本”打造成“工具的日本”。

B. Increasing criticism and denigration of China. The trend of Sino-Japanese relations during the epidemic shows that Japan held a positive and friendly attitude towards China and helped China at the beginning of China’s anti-epidemic, which was not pandemic yet at that time. This is partly because the leaders of the two countries stress the bilateral relations, and Japanese government’s consideration of the internal affairs is an important factor. After China achieved success in fighting the epidemic and took the lead in resuming production, although China showed a friendly gesture willing to cooperate with Japan, Japan followed the United States and the West, increasing strategic coordination with the United States, and implementing  political manipulation on some China’s internal affairs, with stronger censure on China. Japan regards the adjustment of the future international order as the direct consequence of Sino-US strategic competition, taking the initiative to adjusting its relations with China and the United States, using this as a practical step to cope with the international changes, utilizing different polices to form a front with foreign countries on hot issues against China. The reasons are as follows: First, the ruling idea of the Liberal Democratic Party caters to the prevailing thought in Japanese society and represents the vast majority of public opinion. Its policy proposition has in common with the political demands of nationalism and right-wing conservative forces in Japan; Second, Japan’s approach conforms to the basic conception of American strategy toward Japan. The breaking away from the post-war system pursued by Abe’s cabinet and a series of major actions in security policy not only catered to the adjustment of the strategic interests of the United States in East Asia, but also met the needs of the United States to keep China in check with Japan.

 第三，经济上对中国倚重上升。由于新冠肺炎疫情来势迅猛，导致很多国家医疗防护物资短缺、国际产业链、供应链受阻，这本是特殊时期下发生的情况，但美西方却借题发挥，搞所谓“去中国化”，试图阻断中国与世界的经贸关系。安倍政府乘势提出要帮助在华企业实施产业转移，借以分散风险。但无论从国家战略、地缘政治，还是从现实利益考虑，日本弱化对华产业链、供应链的主张，其象征意义大于实际意义，具有很大的局限性。紧密的中日经贸联系决定了日本难以放弃经济利益去追求与美国的霸权利益。新冠肺炎疫情虽然对中日经贸关系造成一定冲击，但也使两国有识之士认识到，面对像新冠疫情这种重大自然灾害，中日唯有团结合作才是寻求生路、摆脱危机的有效途径。³⁷尤其在经贸层面，中日相互依存度较高，合作基础深厚，产业链紧密，两国民间往来频繁，日本不可能在经济上搞“脱亚入欧”，切断与中国的联系。同时，中国巨大的市场和发展空间对日本具有较大吸引力，符合日本长远利益需求，这些将成为日本政府因应国际变局时不得不考虑的因素。随着中国“十四五”发展规划正式出台，未来中国经济发展将进一步提质升级，一些具有长远视野的日本企业家，更看好疫情结束后中日长期经贸合作，积极准备扩大对华投资。

C. Increasing economic dependence on China. Due to the sudden outbreak of COVID-19, there is a shortage of medical materials in many countries, and the international industrial and supply chain are blocked. This is a common issue at the special time, but the US and the West exploited the issue by engaging in so-called desinicization, trying to block the economic and trade relations between China and the other countries. Abe’s government took advantage of the situation to help enterprises in China implement industrial transfer, to spread risks. However, no matter from the perspective of national strategy, geopolitics or practical interests, Japan’s proposition of weakening China’s industrial and supply chain is more symbolic than practical  with many limitations. The close economic and trade ties between China and Japan determine that it is difficult for Japan to give up its economic interests to pursue its hegemonic interests with the United States. Although the epidemic has a certain impact on Sino-Japanese economic and trade relations, it also makes people of vision in both countries realize that in the face of major natural disasters like COVID-19 pandemic, only unity and cooperation between the two countries is an effective way to find a way out of the crisis.³⁸ Especially in the area of the economic and trade, China and Japan are interdependent, with a profound foundation for cooperation, a close industrial chain and frequent exchanges. It is impossible for Japan to leave Asia and enter Europe economically and cut off its ties with China. At the same time, China’s huge market and development space are attractive to Japan and meet the needs of Japan’s long-term interests, which will become factors that government of Japan has to consider in response to the changes of international landscape. With the official promulgation of China’s 14th Five-Year Plan, China’s economic development will be further upgraded in the future. Some Japanese entrepreneurs with long-term vision are more optimistic about the long-term economic and trade cooperation between China and Japan when the pandemic is over, so they are actively prepare to expand investment in China.

 当前国际格局正处于转折时期，形势尚不明朗，还不具备促使日本做出实质性战略抉择的现实条件，但一些战术性的政策举措将会成为日本对华关系的常态。日本政府高层、智库精英乃至一般学者对此有着清晰认识，他们建议政府应尽早制定集贸易、投资、技术合作、安全战略于一体的综合性对华战略协调机构，以便从整体上把握对华战略的全局，探索对华合作与斗争的具体举措。³⁹值得注意的是，日本外务省原事务次官竹内行夫认为：“中日虽然在经济上呈现相互依赖关系，但日本不可能成为与中国创建国际秩序的伙伴”。⁴⁰这些观点在日本具有一定代表性，表明日本在对华关系上实施双轨策略，既要获得经贸合作利益，又将中国视为竞争对手，对中国采取排斥的立场。

The current international situation is in a transitional period with certain uncertainties, and it is unnecessary for Japan to make substantive strategic choices, but some tactical measures will become the normal state of Japan’s relations with China. Senior Japanese government officials, think tank elites and scholars are quite clear about this. They suggest that the government should formulate a comprehensive strategic coordination mechanism with China  as soon as possible which integrates trade, investment, technical cooperation and security strategy, so as to grasp the overall situation of China strategy and seek concrete measures for cooperation and struggle with China.⁴¹ It is worth noting that Yukio Takeuchi, former undersecretary of Foreign Ministry, states that although China and Japan are economically interdependent, Japan cannot become a partner in creating an international order with China.⁴² These viewpoints are not rare in Japan, showing that Japan implements a dual-track strategy in its relations with China, which not only wants to gain the benefits of economic and trade cooperation, but also regards China as a competitor and try to expel China.

 四

 当前，日本正处于疫情高发期，感染人数已经超过40万，死亡超过6000人，疫情形势比较严峻。2021年新年刚过，菅义伟政府继安倍政府之后再度发布“紧急事态宣言”，并将紧急事态覆盖范围扩展到11个都道府县，同时宣布禁止外国人入境。近日又将“紧急事态”时间延长一个月。经历百年未有的新冠肺炎疫情的巨大冲击，日本长期积累下来的政治、经济、社会脆弱性有所体现，原来令日本引以为傲的一些制度模式弊端尽显，这种社会现实也成为菅义伟内阁对外战略推进和实施的重要制约因素。

At present, the pandemic in Japan is still very serious with more than 400,000 infected people and more than 6,000 deaths. The epidemic situation is not optimistic. Just after the New Year in 2021, the Yoshihide Suga administration declared state of emergency again after Abe administration, including 11 prefectures and counties, and announcing that foreigners were prohibited from entering Japan. The state of emergency has been extended by one month. The great impact of the unprecedented epidemic in the past hundred years reveals Japan’s long-term accumulated political, economic and social fragility reveal, the drawbacks of some institutional models that Japan was proud of. This social reality has also become an important constraint factor for the promotion and implementation of Yoshihide Suga’s cabinet’s foreign strategy.

 疫情将加剧日本社会分歧和政治内敛化。新冠疫情在日本爆发初期，并没有引起日本政府的足够重视。当时，日本政党主要讨论的不是疫情防控，而是安倍内阁的系列丑闻，朝野政党相互攻讦、无休止的政治争吵耗费了大部分时间。等疫情刚刚有所缓解，日本一些政治家就迫不及待地抢夺防疫成果。安倍晋三还曾大谈“日本防控经验”，自恃日本是G7当中因新冠疫情死亡人数最少的国家，并以此作为自己的政绩，不仅没有做好应对疫情大流行的长期思想准备，还将战略天平倾向美方，着眼于特朗普连选连任，谋划特朗普第二任期的日美关系。对于已经推迟一年的东京奥运会和东京残奥会，日本政府仍意欲举办，而民众却热情不高，甚至有80%的民众持反对立场。日本政府想借举办奥运凸显大国影响力，推动经济复苏向好，给日本社会注入活力，而民众则对政府应对疫情的能力缺乏信心，面对疫情的巨大压力，民众认为奥运会与自己利益关系不大，甚至不愿增加负担。因此，对于菅义伟内阁来说，既要有效防控疫情，尽快恢复国民信心；又要按计划筹备奥运会各项事宜，为此只能在社会舆论两极分化中负重前行，将政策重点优先置于国内，这将在一定程度上导致政治内敛化。

The pandemic will aggravate social differences and political introversion in Japan. At the beginning of the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in Japan, government of Japan did not pay enough attention to it. At that time, Japanese political parties mainly discussed not epidemic prevention and control, but a series of scandals in Abe’s cabinet. The ruling and opposition parties attack each other, and lots of time has been wasted on endless political quarrels. When the epidemic has just eased, some Japanese politicians can’t wait to boast about the achievements of epidemic prevention. Abe also talked a lot about Japan’s experience in prevention and control, believing that Japan is the country with the lowest death toll from COVID-19 pandemic in G7, and taking this as his political achievement, he not only failed to prepare for the pandemic in the long run, but also leaned the strategic balance towards the US side, focusing on Trump’s re-election and planning Japan-US relations in Trump’s second term. For the Tokyo Olympic Games and Tokyo 2020 Paralympic Games, which have been postponed for one year, government of Japan still wants to host them, but the Japanese people are not enthusiastic, and even 80% of the Japanese are against them. Government of Japan wants to highlight the influence of a big power by hosting the Olympic Games, promote economic recovery and inject vitality into Japanese society, while the people lack confidence in the government’s competence to cope with the epidemic. Faced with the tremendous pressure of the epidemic, Japanese people think that the Olympic Games have little to do with their own interests, unwilling to increase the burden. Therefore, Yoshihide Suga cabinet needs to effectively prevent and control the epidemic and restore national confidence as soon as possible. On the other hand it needs to prepare for the Olympic Games as planned. Therefore, it can only carry forward in the face of the divided public opinion and give priority to the internal issues.

 在这种背景下，日本对华政策考虑更形缜密。新冠肺炎疫情在美国大流行，使美国内政外交陷入全局性混乱，民粹主义抬头滋长。与美国做法形成鲜明对比，中国主动担负起大国责任，率先控制住本国疫情，一手抓防疫一手抓复工复产，确保了世界主要经济体没有全面失守，为全球抗疫赢得了时间。同时，中国还积极协助其他国家抗疫，向国际社会提供了大量抗疫物资。这些都表明，受新冠疫情冲击影响，未来国际秩序的调整将以中国为核心展开，这一点日本战略界比较清楚。在未来日本对外战略中，如何认识并处理好中美日三边关系将是重中之重的问题上。目前，日本对未来中美日三边关系走势已形成基本判断与共识。在日方看来，美国对华步步紧逼以及中国对稳定中日关系的战略需求，不仅会提高中日关系在中国对外战略中的作用，也会导致日本在中美日三边关系中地位提升。因此，在一定程度上协美遏华、保持中美关系的张力，有助于增加日本对华外交筹码，符合日本的短期利益。但从长远利益考虑，日本又不希望中美关系彻底破局，进而使自己失去外交回旋空间，更担心被动地卷入中美冲突或战争，希望中美保持斗而不破的格局。当然，日本也不希望中美关系过于密切，担心成为大国的附庸，进而被边缘化。日本作为中美日三边关系中实力较弱的一方，倒向中美任何一方，对其都是无法承受之重，这就迫使日本在处理对美、对华关系时需要进行谨慎的战略权衡。

In this context, Japan’s China policy is more carefully devised. The pandemic is prevailing in the United States, which plunged American internal affairs and diplomacy into complete chaos and populism is rising. In sharp contrast to the practice of the United States, China took the initiative to shoulder the responsibility as a big country, taking the lead in controlling its own epidemic, resuming production at the same time, thus ensuring that the world’s major economies did not collapse and winning time for global anti-epidemic. China has actively assisted other countries in fighting the epidemic and provided a large amount of anti-epidemic materials to the international community, which indicates that due to the impact of COVID-19 pandemic, the future adjustment of the international order will be carried out with China as a leading role. Japanese strategic circles are quite clear about this. In Japan’s foreign strategy how to understand and handle the trilateral relations among China, the United States and Japan will be the most important issue. At present, Japan has reached a basic judgment and consensus on the future trend of trilateral relations among China, the United States and Japan. The growling US pressure on China and China’s strategic demand for stabilizing Sino-Japanese relations will not only enhance the role of Sino-Japanese relations in China’s foreign strategy, but also promote Japan’s status in the trilateral relations among China, the United States and Japan. Therefore, to a certain extent, cooperating with the United States to curb China and maintaining the tension of Sino-US relations will help increase Japan’s diplomatic leverage with China, which is in line with Japan’s short-term interests. However, in the long run Japan does not want Sino-US relations to be completely broken, thus losing its diplomatic maneuver space. It is even more concerned about passively getting involved in Sino-US conflicts or wars, and wishes that China and the United States fight but not break up. Of course, Japan does not want to see a close relation between China and the United States, fearing to become a vassal of a big power and then be marginalized. Japan, as the weaker party in the trilateral relations among China, the United States and Japan, It would be unbearable for Japan to side with either party. This makes Japan have to consider strategic trade-offs when dealing with its relations with the United States and China.

 在当前疫情之下，日本既要在名义上维护日美同盟，展示友好同盟的存在，又试图在未来国际秩序重构中提前布局，最大限度地谋求国家利益。岸信介担任首相时期，曾主张政治家应专心致力于政治、外交，认为搞经济是官僚们的事情。安倍两次上台执政，在政治、外交、安全等领域做了很多在日本政治史上具有突破意义的大事，其“政绩”足以和其先辈比肩。从第三者的角度上看，无论这些“政绩”好与坏，安倍再次上台执政的7年零8个月给未来日本国家走向确立了基本的政治架构，继任的日本领导人很难完全脱离安倍所确立的政治架构而另起一套。到2021年9月，日美结成事实上的同盟关系将达70年之久，这是日本近代史上维系时间最长的同盟，日美同盟的价值也在历次国际变局中得以彰显。作为同盟关系的最大受益者，日本的大国意识与美国为维持世界霸权所形成的合作与分歧，也将会在未来国际格局变动中逐步显现出来。中国应该以更加开放、理性、自信的外交姿态，明确国家核心利益所在，主动因应日本的政策调整。○（责任编辑：吴兴佐）

Under the current epidemic situation, Japan should not only nominally maintain the Japan-US alliance and show the existence of friendly alliance, but also try to plan beforehand in the reconstruction of the future international order and maximize its national interests. During his tenure as prime minister, Kishi Nobusuke advocates that politicians should concentrate on politics and diplomacy, and that economic development was the business of the government officials. Abe is the Prime Minister for two terms and makes many breakthroughs in Japanese political history in the fields of politics, diplomacy and security, and his achievements are as remarkable as those of the former great politicians. From the perspective of a third party, no matter whether these achievements are good or bad, the seven years and eight months since Abe came to power again have established a basic political guidance for Japan, and it is difficult for the successors to completely break away from the political structure established by him and establish another structure. By September 2021, Japan and the United States will form a de facto alliance for 70 years, which is the longest-lasting alliance in Japan’s modern history, and the value of Japan-US alliance has also been demonstrated in every change of international landscape. As the biggest beneficiary of the alliance, Japan’s great power consciousness as well as the cooperation and disagreement formed by the United States to maintain world hegemony will gradually emerge in the future changes of international landscape. China should adopt a more open, rational and confident diplomatic attitude, clarify its core interests, and take the initiative to respond to Japan’s policy adjustments.

Under the current epidemic situation, Japan should not only nominally maintain the Japan-US alliance and show the existence of friendly alliance, but also try to plan beforehand in the reconstruction of the future international order and maximize its national interests. During his tenure as prime minister, Kishi Nobusuke advocates those politicians should concentrate on politics and diplomacy, and that economic development was the business of the government officials. Abe is the Prime Minister for two terms and makes many breakthroughs in Japanese political history in the fields of politics, diplomacy and security, and his achievements are as remarkable as those of the former great politicians. From the perspective of a third party, no matter whether these achievements are good or bad, the seven years and eight months since Abe came to power again have established a basic political guidance for Japan, and it is difficult for the successors to completely break away from the political structure established by him and establish another structure. By September 2021, Japan and the United States will form a de facto alliance for 70 years, which is the longest-lasting alliance in Japan’s modern history, and the value of Japan-US alliance has also been demonstrated in every change of international landscape. As the biggest beneficiary of the alliance, Japan’s great power consciousness as well as the cooperation and disagreement formed by the United States to maintain world hegemony will gradually emerge in the future changes of international landscape. China should adopt a more open, rational and confident diplomatic attitude, clarify its core interests, and take the initiative to respond to Japan’s policy adjustments.